Netanyahu at the Brink

by Louise Strait and Era Thompson
May 11, 2012

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s surprise May 8 embrace of Shaul Mofaz as his coalition partner and deputy prime minister brings with it much more than the expected revision of the Tal law. As a result, Netanyahu stands at the very edge of history, poised to bring peace between Israel and Palestine or to descend into irrelevance.

The potential for peace is hardly a secret. In fact, Netanyahu announced “a responsible peace process” as being the fourth of the major goals of the new Likud/Kadima leadership of Israel. What is new here is that Netanyahu’s partner for peace, Mofaz, is a man with a plan, specifically a reiterated plan to turn over 60 to 65 percent of the West Bank to a provisional Palestinian state.

The sudden turn of events bringing about the coalition has triggered resignations and demonstrations in Israel, late-night hours for journalists everywhere, and much head spinning (not to mention the spinning sure to be happening in the grave of Ben-Zion Netanyahu, laid to rest a scant week before his son’s shocking announcement). 

All who are committed to a two-state solution for Israel/Palestine should be heartened. The sooner Mofaz’s plan gets put onto the Israeli government’s table, the better. The Palestinian Authority, after 45 years of occupation, may be hesitant to approach this plan for fear that provisional may become permanent before other important issues such as the right of return are resolved, but Netanyahu has urged Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to “take advantage of this opportunity.” A street-smart and savvy politician, Abbas, it is hoped, would find a way to like and sell to his people a proposal that would give the beginnings of self-government to 99 percent of the Palestinians. At the very least, an agreement along the lines of what Mofaz has proposed would give the PA much greater control on the ground, and even more significantly, would be a harbinger of what could become a permanent, viable Palestinian state.

Agreeing on a (temporary or permanent) border (any border) would be of great benefit to both Abbas and Netanyahu. In addition to garnering some autonomy for Palestinians, Abbas would see Fatah strengthened as the rejectionist stance of Hamas would lose appeal. Correspondingly, Netanyahu would gain as right-wing Israeli rhetoric would have to be toned down in the face of the reality that Israel’s possession of “Judea and Samaria” cannot be permanent.

With 94 of 120 Knesset seats in the new “unity” coalition, Netanyahu is holding all the cards. Will he play or fold? Although risk and stability are often seen as opposites on a balance beam, on May 8 Netanyahu refused to play a zero-sum game and showed that, counterintuitively, risk could enhance rather than compromise stability.  By embracing a formidable foe who only one month ago vowed to defeat him, Netanyahu attained the win-win of another 16 months in office and a broader power base. By being the Israeli prime minister who brings a border resolution into this age-old conflict, he will gain much more than time and space for himself: the future of the democratic state of Israel and the verdict of history that the spring of 2012 will be known as the Israeli/Palestinian Spring.