Return to Two States Our Future after Israel's Failed April 2019 Election
June 2, 2019
It was all supposed to go smoothly. After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s narrow victory in the April 10 Israeli elections, he would use his formidable political skills to cobble together a solid right-wing coalition government. Then he would stand side-by-side with President Trump’s senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner to proclaim his support for Trump’s “deal of the century” offering money to the Palestinians in lieu of sovereignty, which would dovetail perfectly with Bibi’s desire to annex the West Bank. However, Netanyahu’s dramatic and unexpected failure to form a government last week, capped by the Knesset vote on May 29 to dissolve itself and call new elections for September 17, has put the kibosh on this plan.
In anticipation of a successful Netanyahu-led right-wing coalition government, members of Likud drafted a bill that would establish Israeli control over Area C—the sparsely populated areas of the West Bank between the major Palestinian population centers—and open it up for new settlements. This would lead to annexation of the West Bank. Palestinians would have limited autonomy in their population centers, as islands within a greater Israel surrounded by ever more extensive settlements, and movement through the Israeli-controlled space between their cantons would be strictly controlled.
Netanyahu’s position has always been that Israel requires control of the entire West Bank for its security. He has never trusted the Palestinians to be partners in peace. His core belief is that Israel is a place for Jews alone; hence the recent nationality law that affirms Israel’s Jewish character while relegating Israeli Arabs to second-class status. Furthermore, he regards Israeli settlers in the West Bank as his foremost allies and the linchpin of his governing majority because many are motivated by the putative claim of their Scripture that Jews should occupy all the land offered to them in the Bible— “Judea and Samaria,” which happen to be identical to the West Bank. The view that Israel should control all the Holy Land of the Bible is also widely held by the American Evangelical Christians who make up a large part of Trump’s base. Hence, there is a natural alignment between Netanyahu and Trump that, as laid out in Kushner’s plan, was to have led to a peace without a Palestine.
The prospects of such a peace forced upon the Palestinians would be frightful for Israel. We can envision violence within Israel, new incidents of international terrorism, and a destabilization of the entire Middle East that could make Iran’s efforts seem tame by comparison. Israel’s Arab neighbors that are currently at peace with Israel predicated that peace on progress toward two states. We could see a future when these governments are overthrown and replaced by regimes hostile to Israel. For many Arabs, such a “peace” would be nothing less than a declaration of war. In short, Israel would become a much more dangerous place. At that point, Jewish families would begin leaving Israel for safer lives elsewhere. The scenario becomes dark in a hurry.
Fortunately, Netanyahu’s political defeat on May 29 makes this scenario suddenly seem more remote. Although he continues as prime minister, he may have become a lame duck. He is facing indictments for bribery, fraud and corruption that he will not likely be able to avoid. Netanyahu had hoped that after his victory he could craft a legislative fix to his legal problems, with many analysts speculating that a right-wing Knesset could very well agree to granting him immunity in exchange for aggressive executive annexation of the West Bank. But now the Knesset, which would have had to pass a law to exempt him from indictment, has been dissolved. Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, who refused Netanyahu’s lawyers request for a year-long delay, scheduled the first hearing for October 2–3. Although it comes after the September 17 election, it is within the 28-day period following the election when the party with the most votes strives to form a new government. Hence, even if he wins the election, with indictments hanging over his head Netanyahu may well have trouble signing up coalition partners.
Uzi Arad, Netanyahu’s former national security adviser and now a critic, says that as Mr. Netanyahu accrued power, he became careless and arrogant, alienating one ally after another. “His demise may occur because of the toxicity of his leadership style, characterized by impulsiveness, shooting from the hip, surrounding himself with sycophants of modest abilities, using divide-and-rule on all levels, a style that had led many to turn against him.” Even his right-wing base may be having second thoughts. “People on the right… are beginning to think that perhaps the time has come to find a successor,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research institute. “King Bibi might no longer be invincible.”
Netanyahu still has a narrow path to victory in September. But even if he wins the election, he is still damaged goods and may not be able to form a government. Right-wing politicians are already looking to replace him. Netanyahu’s troubles will likely cause the postponement of such a large and fundamental matter as the question of the Palestinians and the future of the West Bank. With Netanyahu weakened, Trump will not find a solid platform on which to launch his peace plan. In the meantime, we hope that all Israelis will take another look at the path their nation has been going down and put aside fantasies of one state, which they are prone to interpret as a Jewish state from the Mediterranean to the Jordan. To unilaterally decide the fate of two million Palestinians by placing them under permanent Israeli control without their consent is a recipe for disaster. History shows that time and time again, nations that forcibly subjugate another people meet with a bad end. The Citizen’s Proposal had offered a one-state alternative, but on the condition that leaders on both sides work for a fair and equitable future for all its citizens, Jew and Arab alike. (See CP Suspending Operation) The solution that Netanyahu and Trump are contemplating is nothing like that. Given the risks attendant to this outcome, wisdom calls us to return to advocating two states.
